IPL 2025: How does the latest defeat affect GT's prospects of a Top 2 finish?

Over 50 matches at the group stage and a mid-season suspension made the fans wait quite a bit to find the first team to qualify for the playoffs. However, when it finally happened, all four teams locked their IPL 2025 qualification within two matches. Gujarat Titans beat Delhi Capitals to qualify for the playoffs, taking Punjab Kings and Royal Challengers Bengaluru along. Meanwhile, Mumbai Indians beat the Capitals again to secure the last remaining spot. IPL 2025 marked the earliest finalization of the top four. Following the qualification of the final four, seven matches still remained in the group stage. However, it's not a boring schedule ahead, as the eliminated teams hold the power to shake up the ranks among the Top 4.

Gujarat Titans take a hit on their chances for a Top 2 finish for IPL 2025 playoffs following the defeat in the GT vs LSG match

Gujarat Titans are leading the IPL 2025 points table with 18 points from 13 matches. Their final match before the playoffs is scheduled at home against Chennai Super Kings. However, GT's qualification at the top spot for the IPL 2025 playoffs is not yet guaranteed. The team, led by Shubman Gill, suffered a defeat at home in the GT vs LSG match. The win, powered by a century from Mitchell Marsh, snapped a four-match losing streak for the Lucknow Super Giants. Although already eliminated from the qualification race, LSG dealt a blow to GT's chances of finishing the group stage on a high. A defeat in the next and final group-stage fixture could see GT dethroned from an ideal finish and pushed into Qualifier 2.

Scenarios for the qualified teams to finish in the Top 2

As per the rules, the top two teams on the points table at the end of the group stage play in Qualifier 1. The team that wins the match advances directly to the final. Meanwhile, the team that loses gets another chance to aim for the final, facing the winner of Qualifier 2 in the Eliminator. Clearly, every qualified team eyes one of the top two spots to gain that cushion. Gujarat Titans, meanwhile, have dominated throughout IPL 2025 to emerge as favorites for the top finish. However, LSG's recent blow could threaten the stance of the IPL 2022 champions. GT's defeat has opened the door for PBKS and RCB to potentially snatch the position away.

Gujarat Titans

Gujarat Titans suffered a serious dent in their top-two hopes following a 33-run defeat to Lucknow Super Giants. This setback not only handed them their fourth loss of the season but also dragged their net run rate down from +0.795 to +0.602. Gujarat Titans now find themselves in a must-win situation in their final league game against Chennai Super Kings. Securing a win will take them to 20 points, which should be enough to qualify for Qualifier 1.

But a loss in that clash could complicate their path, leaving them vulnerable to being leapfrogged by both Royal Challengers Bengaluru and Punjab Kings. However, the condition is also for the two teams to win their remaining matches. GT’s NRR, which once was comfortably ahead, now sits behind Mumbai Indians but remains superior to RCB and Punjab Kings. Beating CSK will nearly guarantee GT a spot in the top two. Still, their qualification for the first qualifier isn’t entirely in their own hands. The team would also need either RCB or PBKS to stumble in one of their upcoming games to solidify their position.

Royal Challengers Bengaluru

The Royal Challengers Bengaluru currently hold second place with 17 points. Victories in both their upcoming matches against SRH and LSG will take them to 21 points and ensure a top-two finish. However, even if they lose one of those fixtures, they can stay in the race depending on the outcomes of GT or PBKS matches. A double loss for RCB, however, would cause them to slide down the table, likely finishing third or fourth, putting them in the Eliminator rather than Qualifier 1.

Punjab Kings

Punjab Kings, too, have racked up 17 points from 12 games but sit third due to an inferior net run rate when compared with RCB. The equation for Shreyas Iyer and his squad is simple, win both their games, against Delhi Capitals and Mumbai Indians, and they can break into the top two. Yet, even two wins might not be enough unless either GT or RCB falter once, as both currently enjoy a stronger NRR than PBKS. Dropping even a single match will likely place PBKS in the Eliminator bracket instead of Qualifier 1, reducing their advantage in the playoffs.

Mumbai Indians

Meanwhile, Mumbai Indians, led by Hardik Pandya, are hanging on at fourth place with 16 points from 13 outings. Among the four contenders, they face the toughest road to a top-two finish. For the five-time champions, it’s not just about winning, it’s about winning big. They must defeat PBKS convincingly in their final league match to keep their hopes alive.

A victory would move them up to 18 points, but they’ll still need help from elsewhere, GT losing to CSK and RCB dropping both of their remaining games. If any of those results don’t go their way, MI will find themselves playing in the Eliminator instead. On the flip side, a loss to PBKS will confirm MI’s spot in the Eliminator and rule out any chance of a top-two finish.