Asia Cup 2025: Can Afghanistan still qualify for Super 4s? Check out Group B qualification scenarios

The announcement of the Asia Cup 2025 schedule made it clear that, of the two groups, Group B was designed to be the group of death. Group A consisted of India, Pakistan, the UAE, and Oman. Naturally, India emerged as the favorite, with the main tussle expected between the UAE and Oman. While Pakistan are rated below India in the format, the Men in Green still held a significantly stronger position than the associate nations, making the draw appear straightforward. Group B, however, brought together Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, and Afghanistan, along with Hong Kong. Now, as the group stage approaches its conclusion, Hong Kong have been eliminated, but the other three teams remain very much in contention to qualify for the Super 4s.

Asia Cup 2025: A look at Group B qualification scenarios for the Super 4s

Placed in Group B, Hong Kong were the first team to be eliminated from the Asia Cup 2025 after suffering three straight defeats. However, with five matches completed in the group, the remaining three teams are still in contention for a place in the Super 4s. The Bangladesh vs Afghanistan clash was billed as a virtual knockout for Bangladesh. Yet, the Litton Das-led side managed to secure a narrow 8-run win over Afghanistan, strengthening their chances of advancing to the next stage. Meanwhile, with most of the group matches now played, Sri Lanka have emerged as the favorites from Group B.

Group B of the Asia Cup 2025 has reached an interesting juncture. Following the victory of Bangladesh over Afghanistan, the fate of the group now hinges on a single, decisive Sri Lanka vs Afghanistan fixture. Hong Kong, China, has already been eliminated, having lost all three of its matches. The remaining three teams, Sri Lanka, Afghanistan, and Bangladesh, are now locked in a battle where net run rate could prove decisive. Let’s take a loot at what each side needs to secure a spot in the Super 4s.

Sri Lanka top the Group B standings with four points from two matches and a strong net run rate of +1.546. After beating Bangladesh in the campaign opener, Lanka faced Hong Kong, China, effectively cementing its spot in the next phase. Meanwhile, Bangladesh have also amassed four points after completing their fixtures, but their negative net run rate of -0.270 complicates their position. Afghanistan sit on two points with one match remaining, yet boast the most impressive net run rate in the group at +2.150.

• Super 4s Qualification Scenario for Sri Lanka at Asia Cup 2025

If the Lankans manage to beat Afghanistan in their last group-stage fixture, Charith Asalanka and Co. would qualify for the next stage with a simple equation. Sri Lanka would finish with six points and claim the top spot in Group B. Meanwhile, Afghanistan's defeat in the decider against Lanka would also mean the Bangladesh advances. Despite their poor net run rate, Bangladesh would advance as the second team with four points, while Afghanistan’s campaign would end with just two points.

• Super 4s Qualification Scenario for Afghanistan

Afghanistan, who have showcased their ability to topple the standings with impressive upsets, can still turn things around. An Afghanistan win in the Sri Lanka vs Afghanistan fixture would produce a three-way tie, with all three sides level on four points. In this case, net run rate would become the deciding factor. Rashid Khan and his teammates, already holding the group’s best NRR, would only improve it with a victory, virtually guaranteeing their progression. Even in defeat, Sri Lanka’s comfortable net run rate would protect their qualification hopes.

• Super 4s Qualification Scenario for Bangladesh

For Bangladesh to sneak through under such circumstances, Afghanistan would need to defeat Sri Lanka by an overwhelming margin. Only a catastrophic collapse by the Lankans or a lightning-fast chase by Afghanistan would allow the Bangla Tigers to reach the Super Four. Essentially, Sri Lanka’s NRR would have to fall below -0.270, a mathematical possibility, but highly unlikely in the T20 format.

Bangladesh’s destiny now rests entirely in the hands of Sri Lanka. They can only hope for a Lankan victory over Afghanistan. The final Group B clash thus carries varying stakes for the three teams: Afghanistan chasing qualification aggressively, Sri Lanka protecting their position before the business end of the tournament, and Bangladesh reduced to anxious spectators, watching and waiting for a scenario to work in their favor.